A top 6 B1G finish. At least one upset of Purdue, Indiana and TSUN. NCAA tourney bid. Not marking it beyond the first weekend of that. I have pretty ”regular” expectations and being realistic.
As stated, many new pieces to fit together. Expect above .500 team in B1G, but with some rough outings mixed in and during OOC play. Sweet 16 would be nice if they come together throughout the year. Also, would be nice to see players with eligibility left to stick around for the following season.
I expect 20-22 wins. Middle of the BIG, Make the dance with another 1st weekend exit.
I also think at least 1 under classman will declare for the draft before they are ready. (I do not consider averaging 12-15ppg in the B1G to be draft ready)
Top 4 Big Ten finish, Sweet 16 appearance. You've got your best group of transfer players and best freshman class yet, so it's time to actually do something. The B1G isn't going to be THAT good this year. People are sleeping on OSU's roster...it's just up to the coaching staff to get these guys playing well when it matters.
I do fear this team has a very low floor to go with their very high ceiling. There's a non-zero chance they could finish the year at like 17-14 (go 0-3 in Maui, go 0-2 against Duke and UNC, finish 11-9 in conference). I'm not expecting them to struggle that badly. I'm thinking it's more likely we go like 7-4 in non-conference play with one win in Maui and then we go like 14-6 in B1G play. 21-10 is pretty much the standard Holtmann record anyways. I would be very happy with a 14-6 conference record.
Also, I realize this doesn't matter one bit. But please...advance farther in the tournament than Butler lol
Around 20 wins, a couple upsets but also a couple bad losses. Semis in Big10 tourney and possible Sweet 16 if everything gels and they avoid major injuries.
Good question, not sure I have a good answer. My typical program minimum expectations are top 6 in the conference and make the tourney. The B1G doesn't appear to have any great teams this year and lost a lot of talent from last year, so lots of teams in the same boat.
I expect it will be a work in progress with some early season struggles. IF the frosh and transfers are as good as I expect they will be, I think we will be one of the better teams in the conference and realistically could be a S16 team. I think there is enough talent and depth for that to happen. If Holt can't figure out how to get the pieces to fit together to get the most out of the team, its not unrealistic to think we would be a bubble team.
Top 4 finish in big ten. Atleast one big non conference win. Sweet 16 appearance. If we do that this year I will be smiling ear to ear because I think with how we are recruiting and could bring key and Holden back next year we might have a hell of a run coming the next 4 years
This season could go a lot of different ways. Hard to know what we have or don't have in this team. The coaches and players themselves are just starting to figure that out.
For the sake of trying to predict, I think we are going to have a lot of losses this season but if we stay healthy, I believe the team will be playing its best ball towards the end of the season. But I think in the B1G we will finish anywhere between 3rd-8th. A wide range, I know, but that's how variable our potential success or failure looks to me. The only reason I would go as high as 3rd is because I think the B1G is going to be a little down this season; otherwise, I'd have a hard time picking a team with as many unknowns as ours finishing that high in what has been a really stout conference in terms of depth of decent-to-good teams. I do think that wherever we finish in conference, this team will find a way to squeak into the Dance. Maybe that will be on the back of a few good road wins or relative to worse bubble team resumes or maybe a good BTT run. I don't know, but I think they will find a way in.
Then, in the Dance, anything can happen. We could lose right away or make a S16 or better. Who knows. scUM barely even deserved to be in the Dance last season and made the S16, so I am not even trying to guess on what the outcome will be there.
I expect the team to do well enough for Holtmann to keep his job but not well enough to win anything important. So, the usual.
More specifically, 1-2 big wins that give false hope, 2-3 mind-numbing losses, a middle-of-the-pack conference finish, and 0 wins in the conference and NCAA tournaments (although it makes the NCAA tournament as a low seed).
I think this is possible now. I know it was Robert Morris, but I was kind of taken back with how non-rusty Justice looked. And god, I hate saying this, but you think about having him on the team last year and it probably does change a lot. I say I hate it because I gave Holtmann shit for constantly bringing up how much better the team would be with him and it just felt like sour grapes at the time. Perhaps not! I don't want to overreact to one performance against an overmatched team but I really did think Justice would look slow and rusty. Nope
One thing I know for absolute sure already is that this roster is light years better as far as balance than last years was. It feels like everyone can contribute. Last year we played 2/3 on 5 so much.
I see a patchwork roster of true frosh and transfers. I see no impact or go-to player, and a lack is size.
I think the floor is pretty low and if things do not work out we could be sub .500 and in the bottom half of the conference. I think the ceiling is somewhat limited as well, as we just do not have any difference makers. Maybe one or two of the true frosh will emerge, but even so the roster is just limited. Ceiling is maybe 4th in the Big 10 and a 5-6 seed. We were an average team last year with Branham and Liddell, and we have no players that are as good as they were.
But won’t we be overall a better team by the end of the season? They appear to be the most athletic team Holtman has had. I know it’s been 2 scrubs to start.
Without Branham and Liddell, coach might have to run an offense and play team ball which could lead to a better overall "team". I allow for the possibility but like you I also see a struggle for that amazing twenty win season that is the end all.
Gayle was as good as Branham coming out of HS and he's what, 7th man? Gayle will not be 1 and done because he wont have the same opportunities, but he is a better ball handler, better defender and as good a shooter. Branham was longer.
I Liddell was a very good college player and had elite athleticism. I agree we have no one to replace him.
Key appears to be a better version of himself. While everyone else on the roster isn't as good as Branham or Liddell, they are all better than our 3rd best player from last year. The offense will look different. We won't be counting on one of 2 guys. We will be getting the best shot we can for anyone on the floor. There will be growing pains while they learn the offense and be comfortable playing with each other, but I think our offense will be better this year than last.
I do agree that with so many new parts that the floor could be low if they don't come together and have chemistry issues. I think the ceiling is higher than last years team as it has a lot more talent in the top 9-10.
Sensabaugh is sort of a Liddell replacement but much worse on defense, won't be nearly as consistent or efficient, yet is slightly more versatile on offense.
Was Gayle a better shooter coming out of HS than Branham was, yes, maybe--but Branham was a really good shooter here, and I don't expect Gayle to come close to Malaki's efficiency in volume.
In general I agree with your post that while we may not have stars, we have better quality depth. The level of quality of that depth is still pretty unknown to me, though, until we have played some better teams.
Brice and EJ are just such different types of players that I didn't want to use one in comparison to another. We will miss EJ's rebouding and defense as we don't have a direct replacement for that.
Its tough to say how anyone will develop and I am not suggesting anyone is going to do what Branham did from the start of the season to the end, but 10 games into last season, I think there were more who questioned whether he would ever be an NBA player than those suggesting he would be a one and done. I agree, Gayle is not going to get the same attempts/volume as Branham because frankly we just have more offensive options this year. I was more pointing out that Gayle (who is currently our 7th man) was similar to Branham (best player last year?) coming out of HS and its testament to how much more talent we have as a team this year over last.
24-25 wins, win Maui, BIG tourney semi final exit and losing in the Elite 8. Like the mix of veterans and youth and think some breaks go our way this year.
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A top 6 B1G finish. At least one upset of Purdue, Indiana and TSUN. NCAA tourney bid. Not marking it beyond the first weekend of that. I have pretty ”regular” expectations and being realistic.
Top 5 finish in the B1G, good run in the B1G tournament, and a Sweet 16 appearance.
You need to be humble or you will get humbled. - Jocko Willink
Top 5 Big Ten finish.
1 win in the NCAA tournament
Win at either Michigan or IU.
One good upset win.
A good indication of growth and development that leaves expectations high (Big Ten title contender) for next year.
As stated, many new pieces to fit together. Expect above .500 team in B1G, but with some rough outings mixed in and during OOC play. Sweet 16 would be nice if they come together throughout the year. Also, would be nice to see players with eligibility left to stick around for the following season.
A B1G championship, and perhaps the Sweet Sixteen at the Big Dance.
Keeping expectations grounded for now.
Go BasketBucks!
I am not very smart, but I recognize that I'm not very smart. --- W.W. Hayes
Chic put Ohio State football on the map. --- Archie Griffin
Make the dance
Best case is Another Glorious twenty win season, .500+ in the league and early exit from the dance.
Sani
I expect 20-22 wins. Middle of the BIG, Make the dance with another 1st weekend exit.
I also think at least 1 under classman will declare for the draft before they are ready. (I do not consider averaging 12-15ppg in the B1G to be draft ready)
Csr
Top 4 Big Ten finish, Sweet 16 appearance. You've got your best group of transfer players and best freshman class yet, so it's time to actually do something. The B1G isn't going to be THAT good this year. People are sleeping on OSU's roster...it's just up to the coaching staff to get these guys playing well when it matters.
I do fear this team has a very low floor to go with their very high ceiling. There's a non-zero chance they could finish the year at like 17-14 (go 0-3 in Maui, go 0-2 against Duke and UNC, finish 11-9 in conference). I'm not expecting them to struggle that badly. I'm thinking it's more likely we go like 7-4 in non-conference play with one win in Maui and then we go like 14-6 in B1G play. 21-10 is pretty much the standard Holtmann record anyways. I would be very happy with a 14-6 conference record.
Also, I realize this doesn't matter one bit. But please...advance farther in the tournament than Butler lol
"We didn't play with enough force tonight"
Prediction: Top 3 in Big 10, Sweet 16 or better.
Expectations: None. Enjoy the ride.
I play, coach stays. He goes, I go.
Around 20 wins, a couple upsets but also a couple bad losses. Semis in Big10 tourney and possible Sweet 16 if everything gels and they avoid major injuries.
JWilly3
Good question, not sure I have a good answer. My typical program minimum expectations are top 6 in the conference and make the tourney. The B1G doesn't appear to have any great teams this year and lost a lot of talent from last year, so lots of teams in the same boat.
I expect it will be a work in progress with some early season struggles. IF the frosh and transfers are as good as I expect they will be, I think we will be one of the better teams in the conference and realistically could be a S16 team. I think there is enough talent and depth for that to happen. If Holt can't figure out how to get the pieces to fit together to get the most out of the team, its not unrealistic to think we would be a bubble team.
Top 4 finish in big ten. Atleast one big non conference win. Sweet 16 appearance. If we do that this year I will be smiling ear to ear because I think with how we are recruiting and could bring key and Holden back next year we might have a hell of a run coming the next 4 years
Top 4 in Big Ten
Make the tournament
Get out of the first weekend of the tournament
Stay gold, Ponyboy.
This season could go a lot of different ways. Hard to know what we have or don't have in this team. The coaches and players themselves are just starting to figure that out.
For the sake of trying to predict, I think we are going to have a lot of losses this season but if we stay healthy, I believe the team will be playing its best ball towards the end of the season. But I think in the B1G we will finish anywhere between 3rd-8th. A wide range, I know, but that's how variable our potential success or failure looks to me. The only reason I would go as high as 3rd is because I think the B1G is going to be a little down this season; otherwise, I'd have a hard time picking a team with as many unknowns as ours finishing that high in what has been a really stout conference in terms of depth of decent-to-good teams. I do think that wherever we finish in conference, this team will find a way to squeak into the Dance. Maybe that will be on the back of a few good road wins or relative to worse bubble team resumes or maybe a good BTT run. I don't know, but I think they will find a way in.
Then, in the Dance, anything can happen. We could lose right away or make a S16 or better. Who knows. scUM barely even deserved to be in the Dance last season and made the S16, so I am not even trying to guess on what the outcome will be there.
the empire never ended
Win one game in the Maui Invitational
I expect the team to do well enough for Holtmann to keep his job but not well enough to win anything important. So, the usual.
More specifically, 1-2 big wins that give false hope, 2-3 mind-numbing losses, a middle-of-the-pack conference finish, and 0 wins in the conference and NCAA tournaments (although it makes the NCAA tournament as a low seed).
Win two games at the Maui Jim Maui Invitational.
I think this is possible now. I know it was Robert Morris, but I was kind of taken back with how non-rusty Justice looked. And god, I hate saying this, but you think about having him on the team last year and it probably does change a lot. I say I hate it because I gave Holtmann shit for constantly bringing up how much better the team would be with him and it just felt like sour grapes at the time. Perhaps not! I don't want to overreact to one performance against an overmatched team but I really did think Justice would look slow and rusty. Nope
One thing I know for absolute sure already is that this roster is light years better as far as balance than last years was. It feels like everyone can contribute. Last year we played 2/3 on 5 so much.
"We didn't play with enough force tonight"
I see a patchwork roster of true frosh and transfers. I see no impact or go-to player, and a lack is size.
I think the floor is pretty low and if things do not work out we could be sub .500 and in the bottom half of the conference. I think the ceiling is somewhat limited as well, as we just do not have any difference makers. Maybe one or two of the true frosh will emerge, but even so the roster is just limited. Ceiling is maybe 4th in the Big 10 and a 5-6 seed. We were an average team last year with Branham and Liddell, and we have no players that are as good as they were.
But won’t we be overall a better team by the end of the season? They appear to be the most athletic team Holtman has had. I know it’s been 2 scrubs to start.
Without Branham and Liddell, coach might have to run an offense and play team ball which could lead to a better overall "team". I allow for the possibility but like you I also see a struggle for that amazing twenty win season that is the end all.
Sani
Gayle was as good as Branham coming out of HS and he's what, 7th man? Gayle will not be 1 and done because he wont have the same opportunities, but he is a better ball handler, better defender and as good a shooter. Branham was longer.
I Liddell was a very good college player and had elite athleticism. I agree we have no one to replace him.
Key appears to be a better version of himself. While everyone else on the roster isn't as good as Branham or Liddell, they are all better than our 3rd best player from last year. The offense will look different. We won't be counting on one of 2 guys. We will be getting the best shot we can for anyone on the floor. There will be growing pains while they learn the offense and be comfortable playing with each other, but I think our offense will be better this year than last.
I do agree that with so many new parts that the floor could be low if they don't come together and have chemistry issues. I think the ceiling is higher than last years team as it has a lot more talent in the top 9-10.
Sensabaugh is sort of a Liddell replacement but much worse on defense, won't be nearly as consistent or efficient, yet is slightly more versatile on offense.
Was Gayle a better shooter coming out of HS than Branham was, yes, maybe--but Branham was a really good shooter here, and I don't expect Gayle to come close to Malaki's efficiency in volume.
In general I agree with your post that while we may not have stars, we have better quality depth. The level of quality of that depth is still pretty unknown to me, though, until we have played some better teams.
the empire never ended
Brice and EJ are just such different types of players that I didn't want to use one in comparison to another. We will miss EJ's rebouding and defense as we don't have a direct replacement for that.
Its tough to say how anyone will develop and I am not suggesting anyone is going to do what Branham did from the start of the season to the end, but 10 games into last season, I think there were more who questioned whether he would ever be an NBA player than those suggesting he would be a one and done. I agree, Gayle is not going to get the same attempts/volume as Branham because frankly we just have more offensive options this year. I was more pointing out that Gayle (who is currently our 7th man) was similar to Branham (best player last year?) coming out of HS and its testament to how much more talent we have as a team this year over last.
Top 5 in the Big
Win one game in the tourney
24-25 wins, win Maui, BIG tourney semi final exit and losing in the Elite 8. Like the mix of veterans and youth and think some breaks go our way this year.
A little bit of objectivity can go a long way
Make the NCAA tournament, win at least one game.