To preface this article: CJ Stroud, Ryan Day, and Jim Knowles are all too obvious to be considered X-Factors for this game. Clearly a team’s QB, HC, and DC need to have great games to win in the CFP.

A close runner-up for me is a fully healthy Mike Hall Jr.

But my clear #1 X-Factor is Emeka Egbuka. Here’s why:

LSU 2019 as a Structural Framework

The structural similarities between that 2019 LSU offense and the 2022 Ohio State offense are striking.

What made LSU’s offense so devastating was the downfield, outside the numbers prowess of Ja'Marr Chase, combined with the intermediate, inside the numbers dominance of Justin Jefferson.

The beautiful dance between the two made EVERYTHING easier in that offense. Terrace Marshall Jr. always saw the worst corner. Clyde Edwards-Helaire never ran against a stacked box. Thaddeus Moss was barely covered on most plays.

It helped their QB immensely too. That 2019 LSU team gained the most yards after catch (YAC) in CFB history. Joe Burrow threw dangerous 50-50 balls, knowing his man would come down with it. And he bought time endlessly, understanding one of his top receivers would eventually come open.

Marvin Harrison Jr. fills the Ja'Marr Chase role in Ohio State’s offense. They win in very different ways: Chase is the explosive speed demon, while MHJ is the physically dominant route technician. The results are the same: Both dominant X receivers, rightful Biletnikoff winners, 1v1 coverage shredders, and incredible finishers of catches.

Guess where Marvin Harrison Jr. tonight after losing the Biletnikoff award pic.twitter.com/DiV8HMSJcm
— Stephen Means (@Stephen_Means) December 9, 2022

Harrison Jr. is unbelievable and will get his against Georgia. No Ohio State fan doubts that. MHJ put up 10 catches for 185 yards against the best corner in the country, future top 15 pick, Joey Porter Jr. No offense to Kelee Ringo, but he’s not on the same level as JPJ.

MHJ is holding up his end of the bargain.

Can Egbuka fulfill his end?

The Egbuka x Jefferson Comparison

Let’s compare their measurables and regular season stats:

Jefferson had slightly more volume since LSU rarely ran the ball that year (LSU was ranked mid 70s in rushing offense in 2019. OSU is mid 20s in rushing offense this year). Otherwise, virtually identical production and role.

Both operate almost exclusively in the slot. Both boast elite route running, outstanding hands, and explosive YAC ability. Both are “naturals” at getting open and finding space even as defenses try to key on them.

The 2019 Jefferson Leap

Jefferson had a very good Junior season, but nothing spectacular prior to the CFP. Mock drafts leading up to the CFP had Jefferson as a late 2nd rounder and a fringe top ten WR on the board.

What happened next? Jefferson used the 15+ bowl practices and took his game up another level.

Jefferson exploded for 227 yards and 4 TDs against Oklahoma and followed it up with another dominant 100+ yard performance against Clemson in the title game.

Those two games locked in Jefferson as a no-brainer first rounder. He hasn’t stopped ascending since.

Can Egbuka Make the Jefferson Leap?

I believe he can, and he will. Egbuka is a special wide receiver talent. There’s a reason why Egbuka was the unanimous #1 WR in the Class of 2021. And a top 25 WR prospect of all time.

If Egbuka can ascend to another level, it makes everything easier for this offense. There will be less pressure on Julian Fleming to make plays. Cade Stover will receive less attention. Miyan Williams, Chip Trayanum, and Dallan Hayden will face fewer defenders in the box.

Most importantly, it takes a significant burden off of CJ Stroud. Stroud is a phenomenal arm talent, but like any great QB, he needs help from his playmakers. Look at what happened to Bryce Young after Jameson Williams went down in the title game. Or Aaron Rodgers after he lost Davante Adams. 

Sometimes things felt hard on offense in the second half of the season. Too many third and longs, incompletions, and just a general lack of rhythm.

Emeka Egbuka will be the hidden key to the game. The intermediate area engine that powers this offense forward: keeping it on schedule, moving the chains, and converting key third downs.

So can Egbuka make the Jefferson leap? Don’t take it from me, let him tell you:

Egbuka believes he will get there. I like his chances.

Happy Holidays to everyone!

Go Bucks!